The global economy is surely going to take a hit because of the global trade war between the economic countries.
The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund has said that the trade war is a big risk factor for the economy of the world. The tariff rollout on Chinese imports and the Chinese response to this tariff hike is going to put the global economy in a soup. There is no immediate threat to the US to face a new recession. But, the headwinds that are linked with the growth could be a bigger threat in the months to follow.
The Federal Reserve will be pushing the interest rates higher. The first quarter GDP growth is predicted to decelerate by 2.1% and this is a matter of worry. There is no immediate threat to the US economy to fall below the business cycle range. The recession risk for the United States is close to zero at present despite a new downturn that started last month.
The growth is on a downshift, but the US economy is still strong to not fall off the business cycle. This cannot last as it is for long unless there are some corrections made by the government to boost the growth.